路易斯安那州Hackberry的Cameron LNG终端的Marvel Crane是液体天然气载体。

路易斯安那州Hackberry的Cameron LNG终端的Marvel Crane是液体天然气载体。U.S. Coast Guard via Flickr




In the span of weeks, Russia’s war on Ukraine has created millions of refugees, transformed the geopolitical landscape, upended global energy markets and food supply chains, and hastened Europe’s efforts to transition away from fossil fuels. The war also threatens to alter the trajectory of energy and climate policy in the United States.

On March 25, a month after Russia launched its invasion, President Biden met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels and jointly宣布一项新计划,以帮助欧洲减少对俄罗斯化石燃料的依赖。他们的计划要求今年将液化天然气(LNG)从美国到欧盟的出口增加150亿立方米,到2030年到2030年,占欧洲目前从俄罗斯购买的三分之一。

Biden administration officials have characterized the LNG surge as a stopgap measure to help Europe bridge these next few years until it can build more renewable energy and make its buildings and industries more energy efficient. But energy analysts say the announcement could signal a pivot toward greater support for expanding gas infrastructure, potentially locking in significant new sources of greenhouse gas emissions.

新的LNG终端 - 无论是在美国墨西哥湾沿岸出口还是用于进口在德国的北海海岸 - 将需要几年的时间才能建造数十亿美元。分析人士说,到他们启动和运行时,地缘政治环境可能会有所不同,但是气候变化将更加紧迫,并且将有强大的业务激励措施来保持航站楼运行。


“欧洲需要更多的美国液化天然气来度过接下来的两个冬季,而不是在未来20年内激励使用天然气,”能源智囊团E3G的克莱尔·希利(Claire Healy)在一份声明中说。“这已经将短期的能源脆性变成了美国石油和天然气生产商的长期拐杖。”

一些能源专家警告说,扩大液化天然气基础设施将使更耐用的解决方案分散注意力,以促进美国和欧盟的能源安全。他们说,而不是通过建立可能成为滞留资产的液化天然气项目来促进供应,而是要专注于能源效率和其他减少天然气需求的方法。E3G的柏林高级政策顾问Maria Pastukhova表示,即使有了新的航站楼,美国的液化天然气也无法取代欧洲从俄罗斯进口的大量天然气。“这就是为什么关注需求如此至关重要的原因。”


根据能源经济与财务分析研究所(IEEFA)的克拉克·威廉姆斯·德里(Clark Williams-Derry)表示,不需要实现拜登 - 欧盟的目标。他撰写了最近的analysisshowing that the combined capacity of the LNG export terminals in the U.S. currently operating and under construction is more than sufficient to reach the aim of an additional 15 billion cubic meters by the end of 2022 and 50 billion by 2030.

路易斯安那州卡梅伦教区的Sabine Pass LNG出口码头。

路易斯安那州卡梅伦教区的Sabine Pass LNG出口码头。空中档案 /阿拉米库存照片

“They were already on track to blow through that goal of 15 billion cubic meters this year, and maybe even get close to the 50 billion cubic meter target this year,” Williams-Derry said, referring to U.S. LNG exporters. “Which means that the goal itself doesn’t add anything new to the conversation.”


作为美国的expected成为今年LNG的世界最大出口商。它有六个LNG出口终端,共同移动100 billion cubic metersof gas per year. These facilities — designed to shrink natural gas to a volume 600 times smaller by supercooling it into liquid form — were built to take advantage of the enormous glut of gas unlocked from shale formations since drillers started deploying fracking technology in the mid-2000s. Two more terminals are on the way: Calcasieu Pass on Louisiana’s Gulf Coast and Golden Pass, located about 50 miles west on the Sabine River just south of Port Arthur, Texas. Ananalysisfrom EIA projects that, with new gas liquefaction facilities already under construction and growing foreign demand for gas, U.S. LNG exports will exceed 165 billion cubic meters by 2033.

联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯(Antonio Guterres)说,投资任何新的化石燃料开发“都是道德和经济的疯狂”。

在俄罗斯发表关于乌克兰的战争之前,人们越来越担心额外的液化天然气出口码头将在未来几十年中锁定气候温暖的污染。一种报告自然资源国防委员会发表的估计,从提取,加工,运输和液化天然气的完整过程中,温室气体排放量将等同于2030年到2030年的4500万辆汽车的排放。在20年的时间段内,将其捕获的热量是二氧化碳的80倍 - 占这些排放的很大一部分。

去年秋天,美国在格拉斯哥举行的联合国气候会议上领导了全球甲烷承诺的发起,在2030年到2030年,有100多个国家承诺将其甲烷排放量减少30%。气候倡导者正在推动拜登政府解释它如何解释它如何解释。打算协调采取行动的呼吁及其自身的气候目标在接下来的十年中,将温室气体排放量减半 - 计划将气体出口提高到2030年。

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent report makes it clear that no new fossil fuel infrastructure can be built if the world is to stay under 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. Investing in any new fossil fuel development, said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on the day of the report’s release, “is moral and economic madness.”



For climate advocates, it has been jarring to watch U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm and other Biden administration officials ask oil and gas firms to increase production to help counter a surge in prices and shore up European allies. “Clearly LNG is a big part of this equation,” Granholm told energy executives assembled for a conference in Houston in March. “We have got to do our part to ensure that others are not hurting.” She pledged that the administration would look at ways to “collapse the bureaucracy” around permitting for new projects.

美国石油研究所和液化天然气中心等行业贸易协会迅速庆祝拜登 - 欧盟交易,并利用它来扩大他们长期以来争取更多天然气基础设施和更少的监管障碍。美国石油研究所首席执行官迈克·索默斯(Mike Sommers)在一份声明中说:“我们准备与政府合作,以支持全球能源安全的有意义的政策行动,以支持全球能源安全。”许可过程,并推进更多天然气管道基础设施。”



建造新的液化天然气设施(包括提供天然气的管道,液化装置,将其冷却至负260摄氏度,以及将其装载到1,000英尺长的油轮船上的专业码头 - 是一项漫长而昂贵的工作。在制定建筑账单之前,银行通常希望看到与外国买家的长期合同,这些合同占项目的大部分未来天然气产量。




意大利黎凡特波特(Porto Levante)附近的亚得里亚海液化天然气进口码头接收了一批液化天然气。

意大利黎凡特波特(Porto Levante)附近的亚得里亚海液化天然气进口码头接收了一批液化天然气。Marco Sabadin / AFP通过Getty Images

“如果发生这种情况,政府屈服于行业的推动力,我们最终将公共财政从一开始就沉迷于陷入困境的资产中,从而减少了投资加速能源过渡的空间,” Pastukhova说。“而且我们确实需要这一公共财政的每一部分来进行过渡。”


Experts say that the multiple imperatives of cutting emissions, supporting allies abroad, and achieving energy security at home, all point toward the same answer: using less natural gas.



Research from Jesse Jenkins, an assistant professor and energy systems expert at Princeton University, suggests that while increasing and rerouting LNG shipments to Europe will help now, implementing the climate-focused elements of Biden’s long-stalled Build Back Better bill would enable more robust support for Europe’s struggle to wean itself off Russian gas over the next few years.

Jenkins and colleagues modeled the impact of a clean energy investment package equivalent to that in the bill and found it would cut domestic gas use by 57 billion cubic meters by 2028. That, in turn, would free up U.S. natural gas supplies for export using existing LNG infrastructure — giving European policymakers the confidence to pivot away from Russian energy, while insulating U.S. consumers and businesses from global price shocks resulting from increased demand.


“Ultimately we solve this on the demand side,” Jenkins said. “And we do it by making alternatives on the demand side better – cheaper, better, more convenient – in the context of a large investment package in clean energy, and in accelerating U.S. demand away from oil and gas. And in a context where the EU is doing the same thing.”